Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Mini election prediction

I'm only going to predict a few ridings, and some aren't that difficult to call, so this is a bit of a waste of your time and mine, but I have to get my feet wet sometime.

Libby Davies cakewalks in Vancouver East: margin: 11500 votes
Dawn Black will hold onto New West-Coq-Port Moody: 1800 votes
Bill Siksay will win a squeaker in Burnaby-Douglas: 500 votes
Wendy Yuan will win Vancouver-Kingsway: 2500 votes*
Peter Julian is safe in New West-whatever it's called: 4500 votes
Joyce Murray takes Vancouver-Quadra: not as close as some think, 3300 votes

And Vancouver-Centre? Good luck. I have a feeling Hedy Fry will finally lose, but that feeling isn't solid. Is her time up? Do new residents forget her work in 80s? Will Michael Byers draw out the young and idealistic lefty votes? How much of a spoiler will Adriane Carr play? I'm going out on a limb and picking Byers by 350 votes.

Edit: Hedy Fry by 1700 votes. I just don't see Mayencourt stealing many votes from Hedy, and I get the feeling that the Byers campaign isn't going as well as hoped.

*pure guesswork. I've heard Don Davies is doing well, but I have a gut feeling the Liberals will take this.

1 comment:

Aqua said...
This comment has been removed by the author.